The college football world was expecting a March Madness kind of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matchups underwhelmed, supplying lots of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 against the spread, consisting of three fairly non-competitive performances by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the general public don't seem to believe so. A minimum of in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State function double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has actually been a specifically popular choice with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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"All the money is being available in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The interest for the Longhorns extends to the futures market too. Keep in mind that huge $1.5 million wager on Texas to win it all at +390 ? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' opponent, Arizona State - the most significant underdog amongst the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most like from sharp wagerers. The Athletic spoke with a number of bookies who had taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books against No. 5 Texas - to push the line down to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, informed us he got a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "extremely highly regarded gamer."
Even though reputable money has actually come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are piling on Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and after that Texas win the video game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas video game will be big for the books, it isn't the only video game in town. We talked with multiple bookies to break down where the sports betting action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has approached slightly to a consensus of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at the majority of sportsbooks. The overall dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the money at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets however just 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the 2nd most popular CFP wager in terms of total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are sitting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be amazed if this line creeps up a bit more before kickoff, however I currently welcome any Boise State cash."
Ohio State got the Oregon second possibility it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet dog.
So why is OSU favored?
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Several oddsmakers The Athletic spoke to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this theoretical matchup were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker mentioned that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point favorite (depending on the sportsbook) in this video game before highly regarded money pressed it to the current line of -2.5. A somewhat greater majority of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near to 60% of the cash has come in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle video game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some respected cash at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's stayed," Gable said. "It's good two-way action at that number today. The overall has actually gone up 3 points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the greatest move of any of the overalls. Money has all been on the over so far.
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Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that caters to sharp gamblers, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and instantly our Ohio wagerers believed we were too low. Our opening price of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the total from 52 to 55."
He did note, however, that the book had seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the overall dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's second round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What caused the line turn? Basically, the wagering action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has actually been changed by relative unknown Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in regards to ticket count (second-most popular by total dollars bet), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Money is Can Be Found In On Texas'
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