The world was wishing for a March Madness type of feel for the first-ever 12-team College Football Playoff, with upsets galore. Instead, the four first-round matches underwhelmed, providing plenty of time for holiday shopping. Favorites went a perfect 4-0 versus the spread, including 3 relatively non-competitive efficiencies by underdogs Indiana, SMU and Tennessee. Sportsbooks and the public do not appear to believe so. At least in 2 cases.
Both Penn State-Boise State and Texas-Arizona State feature double-digit spreads favoring the lower-seeded Nittany Lions and Longhorns. And the latter has been a specifically popular pick with the public. The Longhorns -12.5 is the most-bet side at BetMGM nationally in terms of overall dollars as of Monday afternoon.
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"All the cash is coming in on Texas," Seamus Magee, a BetMGM trader, wrote in a text to The Athletic. "We require Arizona State to cover +13.5."
The enthusiasm for the Longhorns extends to the futures market also. Keep in mind that enormous $1.5 million wager on Texas to win all of it at +390 odds? The ticket is still out there at Caesars Sportsbook.
Interestingly, the Longhorns' challenger, Arizona State - the biggest underdog among the College Football quarterfinal matchups - is getting the most enjoy from sharp gamblers. The Athletic talked with a number of bookies who had actually taken sharp action on No. 4 Arizona State - which had actually gotten as high as a 14-point underdog at some books versus No. 5 Texas - to press the line to -12.5 or -12.
John Murray, the executive director at The Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, told us he received a wager on Arizona State +13.5 from a "really reputable gamer."
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Although respected money has come in on Arizona State to cover, sportsbooks will likely require the Sun Devils to do simply that, as public bettors are piling on Texas.
"We would like to see ASU cover, and then Texas win the game, so we get our Arizona State liability off the futures book," Magee added.
While the Texas game will be big for the books, it isn't the only game in town. We talked with numerous bookmakers to break down where the wagering action is on the other three College Football quarterfinal matchups. 6 Penn State (-11, 53) at No. 3 Boise State
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This video game opened Penn State -10.5 at a lot of sportsbooks and has actually approached slightly to an agreement of -11. sports betting on the spread is fairly divided at the majority of sportsbooks. The total dollars wagered differs by book, as 52% of bets and 79% of the cash at BetMGM nationally are on Boise State -11, while 56% of bets but only 42% of the cash at DraftKings is on Boise State -11.5. Penn State to cover is presently the second most popular CFP wager in regards to total tickets at BetMGM books.
"We opened Penn State -10.5 and are resting on Penn State -11," Thomas Gable, sportsbook director at The Borgata in Atlantic City, told The Athletic. "I wouldn't be surprised if this line approaches a little bit more before kickoff, but I presently welcome any Boise State money."
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Ohio State got the Oregon second chance it wanted. Are the Buckeyes all set for revenge?
No. 8 Ohio State (-2.5, 55.5) vs. No. 1 Oregon
Perhaps most unexpected to the general public is that No. 1 seed Oregon is an underdog versus No. 8 Ohio State. These groups fulfilled back on Oct. 7 in Eugene, and Oregon won 32-31 as a 3.5-point home pet.
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So why is OSU favored?
Several oddsmakers The Athletic talked to before the CFP preliminary had Ohio State atop their power rankings, and the lookahead lines for this hypothetical match were Ohio State -1 or -1.5. One oddsmaker pointed out that Ohio State playing up to its power rating in its dominant first-round win over Tennessee likewise shaped his opening line.
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Ohio State opened as a 1- or 1.5-point preferred (depending on the sportsbook) in this game before reputable cash pressed it to the existing line of -2.5. A slightly higher bulk of wagers at a number of sportsbooks, roughly 60%, are on the Ducks to cover, while near 60% of the money has actually been available in on the Buckeyes. This will likely be the highest-handle game of the 4 come kickoff.
"We did take some highly regarded money at -1.5, rapidly went to -2.5 where it's remained," Gable said. "It's decent two-way action at that number right now. The overall has increased three points from 52.5 to 55.5, which has actually been the biggest relocation of any of the overalls. Money has actually all been on the over so far.
Joe Brennan, the CEO of Prime sports betting, a sportsbook in Ohio and New Jersey that accommodates sharp bettors, informed The Athletic that "Ohio State opened as a 1-point favorite, and right away our Ohio bettors believed we were too low. Our opening rate of Ohio State -1 has been driven up to -2.5 and the overall from 52 to 55."
He did note, though, that the book had actually seen substantial buyback at the existing line of Ohio State -2.5 which 52% of the total dollars at his book were taking the points with the Ducks.
GO DEEPER
The most likely upsets for the College Football Playoff's 2nd round
No. 7 Notre Dame vs. No. 2 Georgia (-1, 45)
The preferred turned in this game, as Notre Dame opened a 1.5-point preferred and is currently a 1- or 1.5-point underdog at sportsbooks.
What triggered the line turn? Simply put, the sports betting action.
Despite the fact that Georgia's starting QB Carson Beck is out for the season and has been replaced by relative unidentified Gunner Stockton, wagerers are gravitating toward the Bulldogs.
Georgia to cover is the most popular against the spread wager at BetMGM books nationally in terms of ticket count (second-most popular by overall dollars wagered), and it has actually been "one-way traffic on Georgia," according to Magee. Nearly 70% of bets are on the Bulldogs at multiple sportsbooks.
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College Football Playoff Betting Action Report: 'All the Cash is Being Available In On Texas'
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