Indonesia plans to implement B40 in January
In that case, costs may rally 10%-15% in Jan-March, Mielke says
B40 will need additional 3 mln tons feedstock, GAPKI says
Malaysia palm oil standard at greatest since mid-2022
India may withdraw import tax hike amid inflation, Mistry states
(Adds analyst remarks, updates Malaysia's palm oil standard price)
By Bernadette Christina
NUSA DUA, Indonesia, Nov 8 (Reuters) - Indonesia's palm oil output is forecast to recover in 2025 after an anticipated drop this year, however rates are anticipated to remain elevated due to planned growth of the country's biodiesel mandate, market experts said.
The palm oil benchmark rate in Malaysia has risen more than 35% this year, raised by slow output and Indonesia's plan to increase the biodiesel blend to 40% in January from 35% now in an effort to reduce fuel imports.
Palm oil output next year in leading producer Indonesia is anticipated to recover by 1.5 million metric loads compared with an approximated drop of just over a million heaps this year, Julian McGill, managing director at Glenauk Economics, informed the Indonesia Palm Oil Conference on Friday.
Thomas Mielke, head of Hamburg-based research firm Oil World, stated he expects Indonesia's palm oil production to increase by as much as 2 million tons next year after a 2.5 million ton drop in 2024.
While Indonesia's output is forecast to enhance, provide from in other places and of other vegetable oils is seen tightening up.
Palm oil output in neighbouring Malaysia is anticipated to dip somewhat next year after increasing by an approximated 1 million lots in 2024.
"We would require a healing in palm in 2025 since combined exports of soya, sunflower and rapeseed oils are declining," Mielke said.
'FRIGHTENING' PRICE SURGE
The rate rise in palm oil in the previous seven weeks has been "frightening" for purchasers, Mielke said, including that it would rally by 10%-15% in January-March if Indonesia enforces the so-called B40 policy.
The Indonesia Palm Oil Association said extra feedstock of around 3 million heaps will be required for B40 application, deteriorating export supply.
The existing palm oil premium has actually already triggered palm to lose market share versus other oils, Mielke included.
Malaysian palm oil costs are seen trading at around $950 to $1,050 per metric ton in 2025, McGill of Glenauk approximated.
Benchmark Malaysian palm oil touched 5,104 ringgit ($1,165.30) on Friday, the greatest since mid-2022.
"Sentiment today is red-hot and exceptionally bullish, we have to be cautious," said Dorab Mistry, director at Indian customer items business Godrej International.
He forecast the Malaysian rate around 5,000 ringgit and above till June 2025.
Mielke and Mistry advised Indonesia to
think about postponing
B40 application on concern about its impact on food consumers.
Meanwhile, Mistry anticipated leading palm oil importer India to withdraw its
import task walking
enforced from September after elections in the state of Maharashtra in November. ($1 = 4.3800 ringgit) (Reporting by Bernadette Christina Munthe Writing by Fransiska Nangoy
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Indonesia Palm Oil Output Seen Recovering in 2025, However Biodiesel
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